Don't Say Why, Say Why Not Says Dr Chrsito Wiese
Speech Delivered by Dr Christo Wiese to the Members of the Adele Searll Mount Nelson 100 Club On Friday 7 May 2010:
A few years ago I read a very interesting book, by a Lebanese writer, one Taleb, titled the Black Swan. By now, I am sure, we’ve all heard the story of the “once enigmatic” Black Swan - but what was the lesson of this story? Simply, that when confronted with incomplete data one often draws incorrect conclusions, and therefore – people often think they know more than they actually do know. Perhaps one should pay more heed to what Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defence said on occasion:
“There are known knowns. These are the things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But these are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.”
